Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-11 87073.398965 91870.592105 96665.399793 101814.078294 107182.871146 112612.722722 118516.000922
2025-05-18 79147.170089 86487.228649 94027.811416 102343.024855 111244.652064 120477.722594 130767.955960
2025-05-25 73232.252592 82288.113183 91795.604813 102500.104610 114194.972065 126562.032966 140606.669224
2025-06-01 69358.455223 79770.082646 90899.713088 103646.767186 117806.010684 133014.899245 150549.278289
2025-06-08 65265.900917 76643.227187 89002.076440 103372.803345 119569.711598 137205.956747 157806.153278
2025-06-15 62928.510459 75263.875676 88853.194085 104864.034771 123137.943332 143269.929796 167049.049057
2025-06-22 60493.965588 73597.244073 88222.313980 105664.098551 125802.408283 148226.574279 174982.805189
2025-06-29 57942.563330 71644.566935 87128.106278 105806.045155 127605.973394 152123.007037 181652.443802
2025-07-06 55600.876471 69813.286871 86062.324380 105875.542670 129235.499921 155751.411649 187967.660042
2025-07-13 54480.614773 69357.467464 86545.149736 107704.770036 132877.033597 161684.904739 196955.151641
2025-07-20 53301.842365 68763.186107 86806.320709 109223.237282 136119.636200 167140.058144 205394.795040
2025-07-27 51880.353460 67806.262198 86574.933792 110102.031246 138565.004872 171638.961242 212711.241255
2025-08-03 50026.550995 66275.276833 85620.587175 110094.958264 139957.219692 174924.666067 218658.606862
2025-08-10 48413.250002 64986.103749 84912.776056 110347.260405 141635.514314 178542.535507 225016.310219
2025-08-17 46825.150523 63668.972021 84117.572035 110444.620976 143088.398602 181868.328620 231020.410357
2025-08-24 45871.736391 63116.505346 84237.991748 111647.041242 145878.648419 186807.603514 238991.194009
2025-08-31 44269.824675 61676.816529 83195.942429 111352.546133 146783.159982 189429.846689 244137.383325
2025-09-07 43624.128718 61446.941072 83660.250268 112935.517290 150015.624974 194907.377327 252800.742998
2025-09-14 42686.470109 60800.584387 83564.403581 113784.937519 152315.791241 199236.834936 260069.615620
2025-09-21 41490.640692 59774.262028 82945.483036 113935.624812 153712.488074 202436.795491 265946.215187
2025-09-28 40321.237799 58745.958779 82290.424324 114009.411563 154988.449638 205474.162325 271622.523855
2025-10-05 39995.685304 58835.988649 83082.995765 115951.572945 158652.284635 211515.733527 281084.978717
2025-10-12 39551.818103 58747.429018 83627.603668 117563.507472 161894.829553 217042.444154 289934.381219